LBO News from Doug Henwood

Remarkable winning streak

So the trading desks of four big investment banks—Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase—made money every working day last quarter, a 63-day streak. Goldman never made less than $25 million a day, and over $100 million on 35 days.

There is no way that anyone could do this just by being clever—it’s mathematically impossible. There’s too much short-term randomness even in strongly trending markets. And they’re probably not just making it up, Bernie Madoff-style. How are they doing it? Maybe Congress, if it’s interested in more than grandstanding to entertain and divert the masses, could launch a follow-up to the Goldman inquiry. You can do a lot with subpoena power. Inquiring minds await…

Demonstrate against JPMorgan Chase!

A bunch of good orgs, including the excellent NEDAP, are planning a demonstration against JPMorgan Chase, for all the usual reasons, at their shareholders’ meeting. If you can, please come and be righteous:

Tuesday, May 18, 9 AM
1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, Pine St side
NYC

Fresh audio

Just updated my radio archives. The April 22 and 29 shows were available to podcast subscribers, but the web page wasn’t updated. And the May 8 show (yes, that’s tomorrow) is freshly uploaded. Guests: Emily Gould, Rob Weissman, Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, Kert Davies, Mark Weisbrot, Steve Early.

Radio commentary, April 30, 2010

March on Wall Street

The WBAI studios are on Wall Street, of all places, so I was able to catch a glimpse of the anti-bank demonstration sponsored by the AFL-CIO and a coalition of community groups organized by National People’s Action (Showdown in America). It’s inspiring, but I’m afraid there’s just not the level of popular mobilization necessary to overcome the lobbying power of big finance. The unions are blowing off some steam today, but tomorrow they’ll go back to writing big checks to Democratic politicians and apologizing for their failings. And, I’ve got to say that it was entertaining to see those Goldman guys in the Congressional hotseat the other day, but I’m afraid it was little more than a ritual sacrifice designed to appease an angry electorate. Goldman will probably go on pretty much as before. I hope I’m wrong, of course.

Of course, given the conventions of modern protest, the cops wouldn’t let anyone onto Wall Street—everyone was safely penned onto Broadway, sparing the New York Stock Exchange any unpleasant passersby. A commentary from my 4-year-old son Ivan, who went along: “Why didn’t they go into the banks and yell at the bad people? And no one could see the signs or costumes unless they were looking out the window. And they’d only see their sides!” He’s onto something.

Recovery watch

In the economic news, the recovery continues, with a couple of decent reports coming out of the housing market. Sales of both existing and especially new houses were up nicely in March. Much of the life, it’s hard to say just how much, came from the tax credit for first-time buyers—you do have to wonder if the market can survive the withdrawal of that stimulus. Prices aren’t recovering so quickly. The best measure of house prices we have, the S&P/Case-Shiller index, is up not quite 1% over the last year (though it’s most recent figure is for February, ancient history in these precincts). But much of the gain happened last year; prices in recent months have been pretty flat.

But the trend I’ve noted here over the last few weeks continues—people are buying again. The weekly chain store sales numbers are showing their best gain in years. Appropriately enough, the consumer confidence numbers from the Conference Board are showing an improving mood among the masses—mostly for the future, but perceptions of improvement in the job market were also impressive. It’s hard to say how much of that perceived improvement comes from personal experience and how much from hearing some more upbeat news in the media. But it does look like a recovery is underway. Or so the financial markets believe—at least until the bad news out of Europe (on which much more in a few moments) inspired more prudent sorts to put the champagne back in the chiller for now.

And, in the accurate words of Mohamed El-Erian, head man at Pimco, the world’s largest bondholder:

Markets are placing too much emphasis on the cyclical tail winds and not enough on the structural head winds. We recognize that it will take time for the market to fully understand that the global financial crisis was not a flesh wound, that the balance sheet adjustment hasn’t yet ended, and that the post-crisis phase is inherently complex. We have seen a massive stabilization of the financial market, but the hand-off from financial stabilization to a robust recovery on Main Street, which translates into the large employment creation we need [for] growth, is proving more difficult. So we worry over persistently high unemployment as well the robustness of the social safety nets.

Aside from the use of the tired “Main Street,” which would never appear on here except in a quote, this formulation can hardly be improved upon. It’s striking to see one of the royalty of finance show more concern about social safety nets than just about anyone in political life.

As I keep pointing out, the history of economies after financial crises is bleak; it typically takes years to mount any kind of sustained recovery. For now, we’re being lifted by tax breaks and deficit spending. But tax breaks expire and the deficit spending is set to be reversed within a year. (And Obama’s deficit commission is getting ready to bring out the really big and sharp knives—though there could be some political obstacles to realizing the agenda.) Our credit system is still a mess, and it would be insane to go back to the model of the 2001–2007 expansion, when debt grew nearly twice as fast as GDP, the most lopsided ratio in modern business cycle history—and despite all that credit juice, it was also the weakest of all the expansions. The tailwinds are pleasant at the moment, but without any serious structural reforms, it’s hard to see how the headwinds won’t be back.

Pacifica idiocy

And now, closer to home. A “member” of Pacifica, one Christopher Bayard Condon (like an assassin, he’s got three names), has proposed a resolution to the Pacifica National Board that would essentially require programmers to take 9/11 conspiracies seriously. It would increase airtime for Truthers, and deem those of us who don’t buy this paranoid nonsense in violation of the Pacifica mission. The KPFK local board has already passed such a resolution, but no one’s paid any attention to it, thank god. In fact, a KPFK producer told me that he wasn’t even aware of it. He, sensibly, has been broadcating critiques of this nuttery. All this Pacifica resolution needs is a board member to introduce it and it’s up for a vote.

First of all, it’s appalling that anyone would contemplate forcing Pacifica producers to embrace a party line. I’d sooner give this all up than obey such a thing. But it’s even worse that there are so many people who take this toxic waste seriously. Not only is it nonsensical in content, it destroys the mind. Obsessions about the melting point of steel and the shape of the nonexistent hole in the Pentagon take on a life of their own—as a commenter on my blog put it, this sort of reasoning becomes quite literally like a paranoid’s pathological mental processes.

We—the political left in general, and Pacifica specically—already have some serious credibility problems among the broad population The last thing we need is further marginalization, especially of the self-imposed kind. As damaging as this sort of nonsense is, it’s also politically destructive.

Don’t take my word for it. Connoisseurs of conspiracy might want to check out a 1998 report on Defense Department declassification procedures, prepared by the consulting firm Booz Allen & Hamilton, posted to the Federation of American Scientists website. They recommend that “[t]he use of the Internet could reduce the unrestrained public appetite for ‘secrets’ by providing good faith distraction material.” As an example of such material, they suggest “Diversion: List of interesting declassified material—i.e. Kennedy assassination data.”

So, consider this, conspiracy theorists: instead of analyzing all the rich material about capitalism and empire on the public record, you’re doing the Pentagon’s work for it by pursuing “distractions.” You’d almost think it’s a conspiracy.

The Wal-Mart suit revisited

Allow me to plug another fine article by my beloved spouse:

by Liza Featherstone
Passed over for promotion in favor of teenagers? Subject to sexual innuendo from a supervisor? Liza Featherstone on Dee Gunter, the plaintiff behind the largest sex discrimination case in U.S. history.

Frontiers of moral reasoning

Asked by Sen. Tester if Goldman had done anything “wrong” in selling CDOs, Goldman’s Sparks evades the question, saying that wrong “conveys some qualitative sense of doing something inappropriate.” They just made some business decisions that look bad in retrospect.

Idiocy at Pacifica

This piece of idiocy is about to be voted on by the Pacifica National Board. It’s only going to make me intensify my on-air criticisms of 9/11 nuttery and conspiracism in general.

Pacifica National Board Motion on 911 Programming and Mission Compliance

Proposed 4-25-10 by Pacifica Foundation member Christopher Condon

Except during fund drives, key public affairs programming throughout the Pacifica Network has appeared to overwhelmingly accept the Official Story of 911, arguing from its assumptions, asserting the theory assigning culpability for these tragic attacks to Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaida without question.

The Official Story of 911 is found by many Pacifica Foundation members to be a propaganda fabrication designed to provide a pretext for the unleashing of aggressive war in Afghanistan and Iraq, while hiding the activity of a private, extra-legal, and anti-constitutional network of officials in the United States government, high ranking military officers, and individuals within private corporations and political institutions, who actively prepared, promoted, organized, assisted, fomented, and/or passively enabled the September 11 attacks and the cover-up that followed.

Pacifica Foundation members have made repeated and long standing accusations of censorship of 911 Truth issues by programmers who have advanced the official propaganda fabrication, and against staff, management, and governance who support them. This has created an atmosphere of corrosive distrust, profoundly harmful to working together in a democratic and collaborative environment. Thousands of former Pacifica Foundation members have left over this issue.

An identical motion was passed by the KPFK LSB on February 9, 2008. No action by management has been taken to implement this motion, and most public affairs programmers are in ongoing defiance of its provisions. The Pacifica National Board is requested to intervene in this impasse and establish policy in this critical area.

1. This conflict is not in the interest of the Pacifica Foundation, programmers, staff, or governance. Management, staff, and programmers throughout the Pacifica network must explore ways of providing redress for these grievances of 911 Truth and allegations of censorship, and to initiate outreach strategies to reach those former listener/sponsors whom this conflict has alienated. This should include increasing support and air time for those programs which deal with this issue, and developing new programming for the specific purpose.

2. Programming which consistently and unquestioningly advances the “official story” of 911, by commission or omission, is not consistent with the Pacifica Mission and may be a breach of both the letter and spirit of the Mission.

3. The radio network of the Pacifica Foundation is an appropriate and important media for thorough examination of the 911 controversy. We must encourage good radio coverage by exploring comprehensively the many aspects of 911 with on-air voices expressing all sides (amendment by the late Don White).

Respectfully Submitted,

Christopher Bayard Condon

Perceptions

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—a Dem polling firm run by a former Marxist, so it always asks good questions with a strong class angle—reports that public perceptions of the U.S. economy are improving significantly, but with no political impact yet:

http://www.citizenopinion.com/wp-content/files/co04152010-ectrack-FINAL.pdf

Radio commentary, April 22, 2010

financial “reform”

Our president gave a speech on Thursday in the Great Hall at Cooper Union, the site of Abraham Lincoln’s rather conservative 1860 speech on slavery. Obama’s speech was on a much less elevated topic—financial regulation. He made a lot of appealing sounds, and the financial execs in the front row mostly sat on their hands, but while he was talking, Congress was busy working out compromises—with Wall Street’s army of lobbyists at their sides.

So I’m going to reserve commentary until we see what’s actually in the thing. Will there be a consumer protection agency, or will that be sacrificed on the altar of bipartisanship? And how strict will the regulations on derivatives be—will there be custom-crafted loopholes already pre-written into the legislation? My guess is that the consumer protection agency will at best be notional, and the loopholes will be wide enough to fit a truckload of custom derivatives through—otherwise the Republicans and moderate Dems wouldn’t be going so quitely along with the negotiations. Perhaps I’m being too cynical. We’ll see soon enough.

One of the controversial bits in the prospective legislation is the idea of imposing a special tax on big banks to build up a fund to pay for the next bailout. (The idea has been endorsed by no less orthodox an authority than the IMF.) This does sound in some sense like the routinization of disaster, when instead the emphasis should be on preventing disaster—but I guess it never hurts to be prepared. The Republicans hate the idea, and so does the Obama administration, so word is that this may be the “public option” of financial reform—something for the sacrificial altar.

bailout profits

But, surprisingly, the government looks to be spending a lot less on all the bailouts than initially feared. GM has now paid back its government loans—early. And the Federal Reserve has just turned over almost $50 billion in profits from its 2009 operations to the U.S. Treasury.

The Fed is a curious institution for a government body: it’s entirely self-financing. It buys up government bonds using money it creates out of thin air and pockets the resulting interest payments. Banks who want currency get it from the Fed by turning over valuable interest-earning assets and getting pieces of paper that cost pennies to print in return. The Fed spends whatever it wants on its own operations—it’s never audited—and then hands over what’s left to the Treasury every spring. It never has to ask Congress for money, and its internal workings remain mostly opaque. Nice for them.

In recent years, the Fed’s annual profits have averaged around $25 billion. Last year, it made almost twice that—mainly by buying up mortgage-backed securities in the heat of the financial crisis at beaten-down prices when no one else wanted them. Now that things are recovering, the Fed was able to sell these securities at a profit.

And it looks like the government is spending far less than was initially offered on capital injections to bolster the financial system. (See the IMF document linked to above for details.) Only a bit over half of the announced amount has actually been spent—and, if present trends continue, a lot of what has been spent will be recovered. That’s good news. The bad news is how little has changed. Wall Street is back to its old tricks; it’s not outlandish to assume they’re already cooking up the next crisis.

Goldman in the dock

I’m coming late to this, such are the limitations of a weekly show, but how satisfying it is to see the SEC’s complaint against Goldman Sachs. As everyone probably knows by now, the SEC is accusing Goldman of tricking clients into buying some crappy mortgage securities, ones that were handpicked as likely to go under by another of its clients, hedge fund hotshot John Paulson. To bet against these securities, Paulson needed someone to take the other side of the trade; basically, Goldman brokered a deal so that the buyer’s almost-certain losses would be the source of Paulson’s almost-certain gains. It all worked out for Paulson, or so the SEC says. But Goldman can afford the best lawyers in the world, among them a former top Obama advisor, and the SEC is staffed by civil servants, so it’s quite likely that Goldman will get off lightly or better.

Still, it’s deeply satisfying to see this immensely rich and well-connected firm take a few hits. One wonders, though, why anyone would continue to do business with Goldman if this is how they allegedly treat their clients. It wasn’t all that long ago that Goldman chair Lloyd Blankfein described his firm as doing God’s work. I’m about as secular as they come, but I don’t see that sort of thing in any god’s job description that I know of.

to hell with the Tea Party

Moving on, Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith of Politico.com posted an article on Thursday saying, as Smith put it in his Facebook status update, enough already with the Tea Party. The media is obsessed with these nutters even though their actual numbers are quite small. They even quote Cindy Sheehan as pointing out that they’re getting far more coverage than the antiwar movement ever got, even though that movement was able to turn out hundreds of thousands of people, a hundred or more times as many as the Tea Party has been able to mobilize. Something similar with demos in defense of immigrants’ rights—a recent one in DC turned out many times more people than a Tea Party action ever did, but it was mostly ignored. As a friend points out, a rally in Springfield, Illinois, on Wednesday to protest likely budget cuts in education and social services turned out 15,000—about 15 times as many as a Tea Party a week earlier that got far more media attention.

The TPers represent a fervent minority of Americans, a brand of hard-right anti-government sentiment that is as old as the hills, but is treated as an exciting new phenomenon. Politico.com often publishes some fairly debased political gossip and horserace-type speculation, but thanks to Martin and Smith for doing this. Let’s hope the rest of the media follow suit.

A footnote: liberals have done their fair share of puffing up the Tea Party. They love nothing more than getting hot and bothered over the fascist threat as a way of scaring people into voting for Democrats as our last line of defense against the brownshirts. Yeah, the TP is awful, and a lot of people hate Obama for all the wrong reasons, starting with his skin color, but he’s earned plenty of criticism for the way he serves money and empire.

Oxfam: cowards or hypocrites?

Finally, a quick word about Oxfam America. I got an email the other day from Anuradha Mittal, the excellent director of The Oakland Institute, pointing to an open letter that her institute and several other groups wrote to Oxfam America, protesting Oxfam’s stance in favor of genetically modified foods.

I’m actually more sympathetic to bioengineering than Mittal or, probably, many in the audience, but that’s not what I want to talk about. I invited Oxfam to provide a representative to debate Mittal on this show. Oxfam declined in a rather haughty and dismissive way (press officer Laura Rusu: “Thanks for thinking of us. However, we are not interested in debating Ms. Mittal on her views on GMOs.”). And Rusu sort of denied that they’re promoting genetic engineering. While they don’t have an official position, she said in an email that they think it diverts attention from investment in other, more fruitful areas.

Well, it turns out they’ve got an application into the Gates Foundation for a grant to support their work on the application of biotech in Africa—I’ve seen the document, so I’m not relying on hearsay. So if you’re going to take that position, why not have the nerve to defend it publicly, instead of dissimulating? Huh, Oxfam?

Fresh audio!

Just posted to my Radio archives:

April 15, 2010 Robert Scott of the Economic Policy Institute on how China’s currency manipulation kills American jobs • Matt Taibbi on how Wall Street ripped off Jefferson County, Alabama, and the U.S. government

Links to relevant bios and articles at archive site.

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Letter to the editor

Financial Times – April 16, 2010

Republicans are in the White House

From Mr Doug Henwood.

Sir, Clive Crook’s call (April 12) for a revival of an old-style GOP opposition is a little strange, since Barack Obama himself is a liberal Republican. Or maybe not so liberal a Republican.

Consider the healthcare bill. The individual mandate has its origins in the Nixon administration’s response to Teddy Kennedy’s single-payer bill in the early 1970s. The insurance marketplace has its roots in the American Enterprise Institute’s response to Bill Clinton’s healthcare scheme. Speaking of Mr Clinton, wasn’t it he who said “we’re all Eisenhower Republicans here”? And he wasn’t too happy about it.

The not-so-liberal Republican part is most visible in education policy. President Obama has continued George W. Bush’s “No child left behind” emphasis on testing and charter schools, and has even taken up attacking teachers’ unions.

Arne Duncan, his education secretary, has declared in terms indistinguishable from Milton Friedman’s that Hurricane Katrina was the best thing that ever happened to the New Orleans school system because it furthered that quasi-privatisation agenda.

Who needs “moderate” Republicans in opposition when they’re already in power?

Doug Henwood,
Left Business Observer,
Brooklyn, NY, US

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Radio commentary, April 15, 2010

Recession fatigue (cont.)

I said last week that the preliminary reports on March shopping showed Americans rediscovering their lust to buy, following almost two years of born-again prudence. Those early returns, which were based on sales numbers coming from the major chain stores, have now been confirmed by the official word from the Census Bureau, compiler of the monthly retail sales figures. The Census stats are based on a much broader survey of the retail universe, which includes not only big national names like Target and Wet Seal, but also local chains, Mike’s Main Street Housewares, online retailers, and even museum gift shops. And the Census Bureau tells us that sales rose a strong 1.6% in March—or 0.6% if you leave out autos, which had a very good month. Total sales were up 7.6% from a year earlier—or 6.4% excluding autos. This is a very substantial recovery. It may not be sustainable—on which more in a sec—but for now it looks like Americans have now had enough of austerity.

One reason I wonder how sustainable this is is because I can’t figure out where the money is coming from. The job market, while picking up, is still quite weak, and it looks like people continued paying off more on their credit cards than they took out in new credits in March. So if it’s not fattening paychecks or bigger VISA balances that’s funding this little binge, what is it?

Here’s one possibility. I post these opening commentaries to a blog [i.e., here]. When I asked this question last week, after mulling over the preliminary shopping reports, a reader offered this comment: “Regarding the rebound of consumer spending from my own experience — I spent most of 2009 worried about getting laid off and subsequently saving every penny I could. After it became clear that I wasn’t going to get laid off, I let out a little pent-up demand. I suspect that that a lot of still-employed people did the same — redirecting some would-be savings toward spending.” Could be. The savings rate rose, though not as much as it might have, throughout 2009. Let’s see if it starts heading down again.

And then there are rich folks. In the chain store survey, published I should say by the International Council of Shopping Centers, purveyors of luxury goods had been clocking higher-than average gains since last December. They widened their lead in March. That may be a function both of really rich people opening up their wallets further and the would-be rich indulging their aspirations.

Further evidence of economic recovery: the Naitonal Association of Homebuilders’ monthly survey of builder sentiment put in a sharp rise in April, exceeding expectations. All its components—current sales, expected future sales, and foot traffic from prospective buyers—gained. The index is still deep in the basement, and its latest gain just takes it back to where it was last fall, but this is some of the best news coming out of the housing market in ages. We’ve never had an economic recovery without a housing recovery, so it would be nice if this prerequisite finally fell into place.

Claims hiccup

But not such good news coming out of the job market. There’s much debate over whether the rather strong gain in employment in March was a fluke, or the beginning of a new trend. My guess is that the job market is starting to turn around, but it won’t be a smooth or particularly happy path. One disappointing piece of evidence was released on Thursday morning—the weekly jobless claims numbers, filed by people who’ve just lost their jobs and signed up for unemployment benefits. Those rose last week by a surprising 24,000, the second consecutive weekly increase. These numbers are volatile—for example, it’s not easy to adjust for the effects of the Easter holiday. But even if you take the four-week average, which smooths out the volatility, there was also a second consecutive increase—though much smaller in magnitude. I don’t think this is a sign that the labor market is starting to fall apart again—but it is a sign that this won’t be an easy road to recovery.

Finally, in honor of April 15, a few words on some work by the excellent folks at Citizens for Tax Justice. The Tea Partiers are all in a rage by the alleged tax increases imposed by Obama and the Democrats. Aand they’re not the only ones, since over half of Americans think that taxes have gone up over the past year. The truth is exactly the opposite: as CTJ points out, the current regime has cut taxes for 98% of working families and individuals—by an average of $1,158. For a change, those in the top 1% are not the biggest beneficiaries. Fewer than 1 in 3 of them got any cut at all, and their cut was smaller in dollar terms than the next 19% of the income distribution. The tax cuts were skewed towards the middle and bottom of the income distribution. Why does almost no one know that?

Tea, anyone?

Speaking of the Tea Partiers, a couple of polls out this week (onetwo) confirm what we already knew: TP activists, meaning people who’ve gone to rallies or donated money, tend to be whiter, righter, better off, more pious, and more male than the rest of the population. One of the things that set them off: they think that Obama is taking their money and giving it to the poor and the black. As we know, he’s not. Theirs is a resentment of the privileged, not an expression of working class anger. In other words, they’re not the good guys, or even reachable by the good guys, as some folks on the left have suggested.

Fresh audio

Just posted to my radio archive:
April 8, 2010 Diane Ravitch, former conservative educational reformer turned critic of the privatization agenda and author of The Death and Life of the Great American School System, on the awfulness of the now-bipartisan scheme of testing, charters, union-busting, etc.

April 3, 2010 (KPFA version) Ann Harrison, labor economist at Berkeley, on the effects of the anti-sweatshop campaign on Indonesian footwear workers (paper here) • Steven Hill, author of Europe’s Promise, on the Old World as an economic model for the U.S.

Radio commentary, April 8, 2010

Just one guest up on today’s show, Diane Ravitch, the former conservative educational reformer turned critic of the whole testing and privatization agenda that is now not only the province of the Republican party, but the Obama administration as well.

economic news

Since I want to say a few words about Ravitch and education before playing the interview, only a few brief comments on the economic news. One, it looks like American consumers are going back to their freespending ways. They haven’t yet reached the point of irrational exuberance, but the preliminary reports on shopping in March suggest that it was one of the best months in a decade. How people are funding this is beyond me. The job market is still weak, with poor prospects for serious recovery. Household blaance sheets still stink, with the asset side down for most middle-income families (their principal asset is typically their house, whose price may well still be sinking) and the liability side still high (mortgage and credit card debt, shrinking mildly but from a very elevated level). It’s a little scary, actually. I’ve been sounding off a lot about how our elite has learned nothing from the crisis; now it’s looking like everyone else is in the same boat.

Oh, and Greece is back in trouble again. A couple of weeks ago, the EU announced some sort of rescue package for Greece, but aside from an austerity program to be imposed on the Greek masses, there wasn’t much substance to it. Now the markets are back to selling Greek bonds and making life miserable for that country. It looks like Greece, unlike the USA, doesn’t have the luxury of learning nothing from crisis—though my guess is that the U.S. exemption won’t last forever.

education

Ok, now to Diane Ravitch. Diane Ravitch is a historian of eduation, and an education policy specialist. She got famous for her conservative ties—she served in the George H.W. Bush adminsitration and found herself signing on with the whole Republican schools agenda: choice, testing, and privatization. Several years ago, she had a change of heart and mind of the sort that’s very rare in public life. She realized that the policies she’d been promoting were not only ineffective, they were destructive.

She’s now out with a new book, The Death and Life of the Great American School System: How Testing and Choice Are Undermining Education, published by Basic. It’s a very good book. It’s a detailed, smart, yet very readable analysis of the controversies around public education today, written with a historian’s sense that all this didn’t begin the day before yesterday.

Before playing the interview, recorded earlier in the week, I want to underscore a couple of points. First, while the whole testing and choice agenda, one that ultimately tends towards the privatization of the public school system, was once a Republican obsession, it’s now become a bipartisan affair. The Obama administration hasn’t merely continued the Bush education agenda—in many ways, they’ve intensified it. With the Republicans, it’s all-too-easy to be scandalized by the notion of eduation policy being set by absolute yahoos, who not only don’t read books, but are suspicious of those who do. (And by that I don’t mean to deny that there are serious conservative intellectuals—there are. I’m thinking srrictly of politicians like George W. Bush and his cabinet, and most of the Republican Congressional delegation.) But Obama is far from a yahoo, and so too most of the people who surround him. So why are these non-yahoos pursuing such a yahoo agenda?

Though not yahoos, they are a bunch of centrist technocrats. Technocrats are usually obsessed with what they like to call “metrics,” but they’re pushing policies, like school choice, charter schools, and vouchers, that have absolutely no support in experience. There’s no evidence that they imrpove educational outcomes. The only reasons I can think of for this now bipartisan consensus is that privatizing schools is a way of saving money, and that the whole notion of choice and competition fits in nicely with reigning bourgeois ideology. Note that the business and political elite that is pushing this agenda doesn’t, for the most part, send its own kids to these public schools. They send their kids to private schools, with rigorous traditional curricula, and, in many cases, a “progressive” approach to education. A regime of basic skills and military discipline isn’t good enough for their kids—just for the masses. Maybe that’s another reason for this agenda: producing better cogs for the economic machine. But it’s going to make us dumber.

During the interview, I mention the similarity of Education Secretary Arne Duncan’s comments on Hurricane Katrina’s beneficial effects on the public school system to those of right-wing icon Milton Friedman’s. I’m not exaggerating. In January, Duncan called Katrina “the best thing that happened to the education system in New Orleans.” That’s because it forced charter schools and the rest of the agenda onto the city. And here’s what Milton Friedman wrote in the Wall Street Journal in December 2005: “Most New Orleans schools are in ruins, as are the homes of the children who have attended them. The children are now scattered all over the country. This is a tragedy. It is also an opportunity to radically reform the educational system.” Well, Friedman posthumously got that opportunity. Who could have guessed that a Democratic administration would be so enthusiastically pushing the program. Obama has erased what was one of the surviving major differences between the two parties, education policy.

And second, Ravitch writes and talks about the central role played by a handful of very rich foundations in pushing this agenda. The sinister role of foundations, unaccontable bodies run by rich people and their hired hands, in public life, is rarely talked about. Part of the reason for that is that many of the people who might talk about them, and many of the forums that might publicize their talk, are on the foundation dole, or would like to be. I’m not. And I’ll never miss an opportunity to point out how toxic these things are.

Radio commentary, April 1, 2010

March employment

First, a few words on the U.S. employment report for March, released on Friday morning. While the headline job gain of 162,000 looked pretty decent, especially after the huge declines of 2008 and early 2009, 30% of the gain came from temporary workers hired to conduct the Census, and another 25% came from temp firms in the private sector. So more than half the gain was in jobs designed not to last.

There were a few bright spots. Manufacturing added 17,000 workers, its third consecutive monthly gain—a sterling performance for a sector that lost jobs for 35 months in a row, and was in its own private recession for a dozen years. Manufacturing employment is now below where it was in 1941—not as a percentage of the total workforce, but in absolute numbers, a period when overall employment nearly quadrupled. (Manufacturing was over 30% of total employment then; now, it’s 9%.) Employment in bars and restaurants also grew, good news for the sybarites among us.

The unemployment rate held steady at a very high 9.7%, and the broadest measure of joblessness, the so-called U-6 rate, which takes account of people working part time who want full time work but can’t find it as well as those who’ve given up the job search as hopeless, rose 0.1 point to 16.8%, an extremely high number. The probability of a person unemployed in February finding a job in March fell below 20%, to an all-time low (and these numbers, using a technique borrowed from the economist Robert Shimer, go back to 1948).

Average earnings fell by 0.1%, before adjusting for inflation. Declines in wages are very rare, so despite the vaguely improving tone of the employment stats, the labor market continues to be very weak.

We’re in a deep hole, and it’s going to take a long time to get out of it.

backward glance: employment reality check

And now a bit of statistical arcana. As I point out here from time to time, the monthly employment numbers are based on a survey of employers. It’s a very large effort, about 300,000 establishments, but as with any survey, it’s necessarily incomplete. It covers only about a quarter of the places that people work. You couldn’t canvass the entire universe of employers every month and get the data out with anything approaching timeliness. So the government statisticians—who, I can’t say too many times, are extremely competent and dedicated people, the slurs of conspiracy theorists to the contrary—do their best to turn the survey into an estimate of what’s going on throughout the U.S. economy. Most of the time, the survey is a pretty good. But it’s not good at times of rapid change.

The estimates are reguarly corrected by comparing them to the near-complete coverage of the employment universe, about 99% complete, provided by the unemployment insurance system. Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes what are called benchmark revisions, that align the monthly estimates with results of the full coverage. And those yearly exercises are supplemented with quarterly releases from the same source—though a delay of about six months. Six months would be too long to wait for monthly employment numbers, but the quarterly audits provide an excellent reality check.

As I said, most of the time, the monthly survey is pretty close, within a tenth of a percentage point or two, of the full-coverage numbers. But things have been very out of whack in this recession. On Thursday morning, the BLS reported that the employment picture last September was even worse than we realized. The regular monthly numbers told us that 6.4 million jobs were lost between September 2008 and September 2009. The full-coverage version now tells us that the true loss was 7.1 million. Things looked pretty bad before; now they look even worse.

All signs are that the job market is beginning to improve, as the March figures showed. But, like I said, we’re in a deep hole—and now we know it’s an even deeper hole than we thought—and it’s going to take a very long time to climb out of this one. Further evidence of why we need a jobs program, which our president and Congress aren’t about to give us.

hedgies prosper

Oh, but 2009 was a great year for the masters of the universe! The top 25 hedge fund managers pulled in an average of $1 billion last year. The man at the very top, David Tepper, took home $4 billion. Next up was that great liberal humanist, George Soros, at $3.3 billion. The poor relation at #10, Philip Falcone, hauled in $825 million. The $25 billion that this gang collectively earned would be enough to pay the tuition for about one in five college and university students in the USA. That’s only a hair less what the federal government pays in tuition assistance. Twenty-five guys (all men, by the way). What a country.