Advertisements
Posted by: Doug Henwood | February 23, 2011

StimPak still stimulating

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is out with its latest estimates of the effects of the stimulus package—officially the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA)—on employment and incomes. For the fourth quarter of 2010, the CBO estimates that ARRA:

  • raised real GDP by 1.1–3.5%
  • lowered the unemployment rate by 0.7–1.9 points
  • increased the number of people employed by 1.3–3.5 million
  • increased the number of full-time equivalent jobs by 1.8–5.0 million above what would have happened without ARRA

These are substantial numbers. Take GDP. The midpoint of the estimate is 2.3%. Real GDP is up 4.5% from its 2009 low. In other words, the StimPak accounts for about half the growth. Or employment. It’s up only a little over a million from its low; it would still be in the red without ARRA. And if you add 1.3 points to the December unemployment rate, it would be 10.7%, above its worst level of 10.1% in October 2009.

Of course, the stimulus is fading and the austerity party is getting the upper hand. That, and $100 oil, could make us nostalgic for early 2011.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: