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Posted by: Doug Henwood | January 17, 2018

Market timing, lbo-news style

As I’m typing this, bitcoin is having another terrible day, trading at $10,050, down 11% from yesterday and 48% from its all-time high of $19,290. (For the latest price, click here.) Of course, it also had a spectacular upward run. On August 17, 2010, when the cryptocurrency’s price history begins, it was worth $0.08. Four-and-a-half months later, January 1, 2011, when the chart just below begins, it was worth $0.30, a gain of 290%. A year later, January 1, 2012, it traded at $5.20, a gain of 1,633%. Five years later, January 1, 2017, it had tacked on another 19,087%, taking it to $998.

But it was only warming up, which is why that 1,297,338% move from $0.08 to $998 looks so trivial next to what followed. (In dollar terms, that is. The right edge would look much less dramatic on a logarithmic chart, which would be all about percentage changes, but that would be a lot less fun.) BTC had a very good year in 2017, peaking on December 17 at the above-mentioned $19,290, a gain of 1,833% for the year, and 25,084,146% since birth. If you’d bought $1,000 worth of bitcoin at its birth, it would have been worth over $250,000,000 at its all-time high (so far)—though if you tried to sell it, the price probably would have collapsed. This is not a deep market.

Bitcoin - long

But this overture has distracted from the real point of this post: celebrating lbo-news’s market timing. The graph below is a close-up of the bitcoin action since October 2017, with three crucial dates marked on the graph: the date the first article on BTC was posted here, the all-time high, and the date the second BTC article was posted here. The posting dates bookend the high almost perfectly. Unlike our president, who seems to think that everything good that happens is his doing, lbo-news will claim no credit for bitcoin’s fall.

Bitcoin - recent

 

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